【翻译/转贴】美国地质勘探局不能预测地震

综合编译：马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗 2008年5月14日 来源：美国USGS网站（http://www.usgs.gov/） —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 译者注：美国地质勘探局(U.S. Geological Survey，简称USGS)是美国内政部的下属机构。 可悲的是，国内的专家公信力不足，而一些对科学不了解的媒体人士又喜欢撰文谈这个非常复杂的问题。 问：你们能够预测地震吗？（来自FAQ http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=6&;faqID=13） 答：不能。无论是美国地质勘探局（USGS）还是加州理工学院，或者其他任何科学家都从来没有成功预测过一次重大地震。他们不知道如何预测，也不指望未来某个时候能够预测地震。但是急于基本的科学数据，可以计算 未来可能发生地震的概率，比如，科学家估计未来三十年内加州旧金山湾区发生重大地震的可能是67％，南加州发生重大地震的可能是60％。 美国地质勘探局（USGS）把主要的精力放在，通过提高建筑物安全在长期中减少地震灾害的损失，而不是试图实现短期预测。 美国地质勘探局（USGS)的任务和规划 任务：美国地质勘探局通过提供可靠的科学信息来描述和了解地球，来服务于美国；最大程度减小自然灾害带来的生命和财产损失；控制水力，生物，能源和矿务资源；提高和保护人民生活质量。 规划：美国地质勘探局已经成为了自然科学界的一个世界领导者，这是由于我们在科学上卓越的实力以及对社会需要的回应。 美国地质勘探局（USGS)的人员构成 美国地质勘探局雇用最优秀和最聪明的专家，他们依靠地球和生命科学方面很多领域的特长来处理问题。通过综合不同学科的专业知识和技能，美国地质勘探局能够了解复杂的自然科学现象，为决策提供科学的依据。在美国地质勘探局（USGS)，每天有1万名科学家、技术人员以及其他雇员为美国人们工作，他们遍布在美国400多个地点。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 原文： FAQ - Common Myths about Earthquakes (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn ... ryID=6&faqID=13) Q: Can you predict earthquakes? A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California. The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions. About USGS U.S. Geological Survey ( U.S. Department of the Interior ) Our Mission and Vision Mission: The USGS serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. Vision: USGS has become a world leader in the natural sciences thanks to our scientific excellence and responsiveness to society's needs. Who We Are The USGS employs the best and the brightest experts who bring a range of earth and life science disciplines to bear on problems. By integrating our diverse scientific expertise, the USGS is able to understand complex natural science phenomena and provide scientific products that lead to solutions. Every day the 10,000 scientists, technicians, and support staff of the USGS are working for you in more than 400 locations throughout the United States.

希望大家能正确的认识地震,在事前,事后做好预防和做好预防和救护措施,切末散布谣言～～～～